Sticking with What (Barely) Worked: A Test of Outcome Bias

نویسندگان

  • Lars Lefgren
  • Brennan C. Platt
  • Joseph Price
چکیده

Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator considers ex-post outcomes when judging whether a choice was correct, ex-ante. We formalize this cognitive bias in a simple model of distorted Bayesian updating. We then examine strategy changes made by professional football coaches. We find they are more likely to revise their strategy after a loss than a win — even for narrow losses, which are uninformative about future success. This increased revision following a loss occurs even when a loss was expected, and the offensive strategy is revised even when failure is attributable to the defense. These results are consistent with our model’s predictions. JEL Codes: C11, D03, D81, L83

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عنوان ژورنال:
  • Management Science

دوره 61  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2015